Czech Senate elections 2024: opposition ANO scores the most seats as a single party, but the governing coalition's majority remains intact
The Association of Dissatisfied Citizens (ANO) movement has scored the most seats as a single party for the first time in history during elections to the Czech Senate, eight out of the 27 seats up for grabs. The movement will therefore be entitled to a seat in the leadership of the upper house. Also an historical first is the fact that its caucus with SOCDEM could be the third-strongest in the Senate with at least 13 seats. The candidates nominated by parties in the governing coalition won in 15 precincts, however. Therefore, the Government will still be able to rely on a majority of at least 59 seats out of 81 in the Senate. Czech Senator Miloš Vystrčil (Civic Democratic Party - ODS) is quite likely to remain president of the Senate.
ANO won two Senate seats in the first round of voting and added six more during the final second round. The most successful governing coalition party was the Mayors and Independents (STAN) movement, which won six seats. ODS defended just five of its 10 seats, the Christian Democrats (KDU-ČSL) defended both of its seats, and two TOP 09 candidates, one an incumbent, also won. In the rest of the precincts representatives of the Oath (Přísaha) party, SEN 21, SOCDEM and Stanislav Balík as an independent candidate were elected. This is the first time the Oath (Přísaha) movement has been elected to the Czech Parliament thanks to the success of its chair, Róbert Šlachta, who is now a senator from the Břeclav area. On the other hand, the opposition “Freedom and Direct Democracy” (SPD) movement won no Senate seats, as its only candidate going into the second round lost in the Prostějov area.
The final round of the Senate elections saw a turnout of 17.5 % of the electorate, 1 % more than turnout during the Senate elections of 2018.
ANO won this year’s elections to the EP and to the Regional Assemblies as well. According to its First Vice-Chair, Karel Havlíček, it has now broken the “curse” that existed on the party in the Senate with a convincing victory. The movement will want a seat in the leadership of the upper house, and Andrej Babiš, the former PM who chairs ANO, said Jana Mračková Vildumetzová, who ran for the Senate while serving as a member of the lower house, could fill the role, although she also could become Governor of the Karlovy Vary Region after her success in the elections to the Regional Assemblies.
According to Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala (ODS), the governing coalition defeated ANO in this year’s Senate elections by winning 15 seats. He called it a solid result and the achievement of their aim to defend the Senate from left-wing populists.
The senatorial clubs of the governing coalition parties ODS, TOP 09, KDU-ČSL and STAN will most likely have a majority in the Senate of at least 59 out of 81 seats. The coalition caucus could lose that majority in two years, when 22 of their senators will defend their seats while just one ANO senator will do so.
The Senate caucus of ODS and TOP 09 has been weakened from 36 to at least 29 seats in the upper house, but if the TOP 09 candidates Pavel Fischer and Břetislav Rychlík join that caucus, it will hold its numerical superiority with the right to nominate the president of the Senate. That means Vystrčil (ODS) will remain in charge of the upper house in all probability, while TOP 09 wants to maintain its vice-presidential post.
Jiří Drahoš will remain First Vice-President of the Senate for the STAN movement, as its caucus defended all six of its seats and remains the second-strongest with 18 members. The senatorial club of KDU-ČSL should still have at least 12 members, because they won in two precincts this time. However, the ANO and SOCDEM caucus will be stronger with 13 members.
Of 23 incumbents who defended their seats this year, 13 were not re-elected. That includes former presidential candidate Marek Hilšer, for example. Ten incumbents were re-elected, three of them during the first round of voting. Four senators, including the current Education Minister, Mikuláš Bek (STAN), did not seek re-election.
According to political scientists, the ANO movement reaped the benefits of its opposition role during the Senate elections this year. However, this was not a convincing victory given the support for ANO that has long been expressed in the opinion polls. Political scientists believe the Government will have no problem pushing through its priorities, as the governing coalition parties have preserved their majority in the upper house.
Given the electoral outcome, it is unclear whether Czech Labor and Social Affairs Minister Marian Jurečka will defend his role as chair of the Christian Democrats at their convention on 18-19 October. He said he would discuss the decision as to whether to seek the chairmanship again with his fellow party members. He also said the party could be led by the Governor of the South Moravian Region, Jan Grolich, who admitted he might seek the role and will make his decision next week.
ANO will also be receiving more of the state contribution for Senate seats thanks to its electoral outcome. Instead of five it will have seven seats, which means it will receive CZK 6.3 million [EUR 250,000] from the state. ODS, which lost five seats, will be receiving less in such contributions. The governing party will have CZK 4.5 million [EUR 180,000] less to work with in the Senate. CZK 900,000 [EUR 36,000] is paid from the state annually per each member of both the lower and upper houses.
